Macro perspectives and 2021 predictions on markets, geopolitics, business trends and social issues from our senior team members. Accordingly, we anticipate investors to likely be more discerning of actual fundamentals, at least more so than what we saw in the summer of 2020 when just about every asset class in every emerging market saw demand. The Coronavirus “pandemic,” last summer’s Black Lives Matter/Antifa protests/riots, and an exhausting presidential election. The three key trends we believe will shape 2021 are. Essentially, emerging markets could be poised to outperform in 2021, particularly those that are large, have diverse sources contributing towards growth and revenue, and have favorable debt metrics. FREE. Trump, a Big Personality whose style is the physical taunt and threat, did not pledge support for a peaceful transfer of power, and there hasn’t been one. In respect to geopolitics we anticipate that the shift towards the regionalisation of power centers will continue, and potentially accelerate. It has had a healthy... Central Asia. Dec 15, 2020 | 10:15 GMT. Professor Amelia Hadfield: Dean International, ... shifts are on the horizon, with the departure of German Chancellor Angela Merkel this year (German federal election predictions are as yet unclear), and ongoing ambitions by President Macron regarding European strategic autonomy. In response, it’s possible that some emerging market central banks start to tighten rates in 2021, adding upward pressure on their yields while strengthening their local currencies. Same Risk, Better Resiliency. Markets A look at the most recent business trends and how they are affecting global markets. Outliers to challenge assumptions and encourage anticipation of higher-impact events. This means less solo proclamations on the US’s intentions, fewer surprises and quick decisions, advanced telegraphing of major policy changes, and working with traditional allies to promote foreign policy goals, all while attempting to bridge divides with emerging partners. BRENDAN SMIALOWSKI/AFP; Mark Makela/Getty Images; ISABEL INFANTES/AFP; PHILIP FONG/AFP via Getty Images . Quarterly Geopolitical Risk Forecast: Q1 2021. While China remains an ardent advocate for multilateralism and is set to play an ever-greater role in global governance, it will face grave challenges in 2021 arising from the complex interplay between the Covid-19 pandemic, the global economic recovery, and the changing geopolitics of U.S.-China competition. Recovery elsewhere is expected to be uneven, with much of the world not reaching pre-pandemic GDP levels until 2022, including probably the United States and Europe. - Intelligence - Risk portal. ANKURA REPORT: GEOPOLITICAL FAULT LINES, FISSURES, FLASHPOINTS, AND FRACTURES IN 2020. The first half of the year will be … Much of this will occur in the Indian Ocean. Bullish. Crude Oil Prices Choppy, Rising Geopolitical Risks to Spark Oil Volatility. The differing economic outlooks could also result in differing policy responses. 2021 is the year of the Gripping Hand, and COVID-19 is what’s gripping us. Geopolitical tensions will continue to escalate over the course of the next seven years. Fighting has resumed between the Ukrainian military and Russian-backed rebels in Donbass who accused the government in Kyiv of preparing for a large-scale offensive.... Read more. GEOPOLITICAL FORECAST 2021 - MARCH 2021. India has been at the centre of various conflicts and developments which have significant geopolitical risks associated with it. endstream endobj 38 0 obj <> endobj 39 0 obj <. 2021 Annual Forecast. Read More. Recovering from COVID-19: As in times of war, the rules of the game are simply different during a global pandemic. Fourth, when/if economic growth begins, fiscal stimulus support may be eased and we could start to see a wave of bankruptcies for entities that no longer have fiscal support. You can read the first two parts here and here. Introductory 12-month offer for new and eligible returning subscribers only. Low. 2. In this episode of the Essential Geopolitics … 66 0 obj <>/Filter/FlateDecode/ID[<777B39426AB26F489115862F41CBF923>]/Index[37 49]/Info 36 0 R/Length 122/Prev 276961/Root 38 0 R/Size 86/Type/XRef/W[1 2 1]>>stream Specifically, it is anticipated that the year ahead, and thereafter, will be hallmarked by an increased US emphasis on multilateralism. “The fusion of the Crisis24 and WorldAware intelligence teams has broadened and deepened our service offering. Over 370 forecasts on issues relevant to security, crisis and geopolitical risk. With that said, many expect, and hope, that investors do not paint all emerging markets with the same brush. Geopolitics – Regionalisation to accelerate. The Geopolitics of the Arctic - Camden Conference 2021 Virtual Events Team - GEOPoliticalMatters.com European News & Media Centre Málaga The Camden Conference has taken the current global pandemic seriously and announces that the 2021 Conference will take place, although with a change in format for this year. Both nations are US allies, but ties with each could well slide in the coming years. h�bbd``b`� ��`� �� &+ ��2)�� � �x"~��$�H0J�X�@ڦ �H�X��@, !�(Z@:�A� a0����a�A�T'�3�` *m Each will become a more important foundational chess piece for the geopolitical struggle and global unrest that start to gain pace through investment, R&D and innovation. April 27, 2020. 54 MIN READ Jan 3, 2021 | 21:37 GMT. As a consequence, these countries may be incentivised to deepen their regional cooperation, while concurrently bolstering their own defence capabilities. 42 | KCL Geopolitical Risk Forecast Report 2021 is targeting Trumps and Republicans. This indicates the potential for macroeconomic stability in these names. This then means that we could see a division between emerging markets too, with some significantly outperforming others. Among the most powerfully visceral forces in politics. The Middle East. By Joshua Ball Last updated Jun 7, 2019. China’s geopolitical forecast for 2021. However, there is plenty they can do on the quantitative easing front, and could potentially continue or even ramp up purchases and security maturities over the next year. Executive Summary. The U.S.- Mexico border has been a source of geopolitical tension for decades. 34 | KCL Geopolitical Risk Forecast Report 2021 billion barrels of oil, 1,669 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, and 44 billion barrels of natural gas liquids remain undiscovered. However, this reversion to a “robust” US engagement strategy is unlikely to result in a hardline approach towards China, at least not initially. Geopolitics – Regionalisation to accelerate One of the key forces driving geopolitics in 2021 will likely stem from a change in US leadership as this could yield significant shifts on the foreign policy front. High. The political repercussions of the COVID-19 pandemic, which can be attributed to mismanagement by … Meanwhile, on the economic front, many industry experts expect emerging markets to witness a strong year. Pessimistic forecast: 89.79 Optimistic: 91.54 Micron stock forecast for 08.04.2021. This in turn could result in increased asset price volatility when/if prices come down and the bubbles burst. Perch Perspectives First Annual Forecast, 2021. « Back. Early warning indicators as on-going monitoring points to watch out for through 2021. Top healthcare market predictions for 2021 in light of the pandemic and other factors 4. Shailesh is a Head of Country, Credit and Economic Research at The Hartford. Global Forecast (3-30-2021) Forecasts - March 30, 2021. Our geopolitical team has identified a few strategic trends we believe clients may expect to see in 2020. Territory rule. Continuing conflict … StanChart Incorporates Loan Market Association’s Green and Sustainability-linked Loan Principles into Trade Financing Framework, 25% of SME exporters halt EU sales 90 days after Brexit, according to a new study, ADB Bolsters Support for Sustainable and Resilient Food Systems, Afreximbank announces landmark phosphate mining term loan facility worth US$350m, SME Barometer: lockdown measures turn down recovery expectations, RFIx – Receivables Finance International Convention 2021, TXF Global Commodity Finance Virtual 2021, VIDEO: Trade Digitalization and Financing: New Hope for MSMEs, Podcast: Standby Letters of Credit (SBLCs) and their role in International Trade, RELEASED: Trade Finance Talks – A pathway towards sustainable trade finance. Part of this may be attributed to supply dislocations, coupled with demand surging faster than anticipated, coupled with rising commodity prices. The Middle East and North Africa will see continued, if not escalating instability. Higher government spending, loose fiscal and monetary policy, low front end yields, and increased central bank balance sheet expansion could naturally be dollar negative, providing support to select emerging currencies and assets. But we could see a division between large emerging markets and the developed world. The larger, diversified, and fiscally strong emerging markets with ample funding sources will likely witness greater capital flow and thus asset appreciation, even in cases where they have high nominal debt levels (i.e. Put them here, in this thread. Crisis24 and WorldAware, GardaWorld companies now acting as one, issue annual report that examines geopolitical, travel and health threats worldwide. Leading global risk management firm Crisis24, a GardaWorld company, released its annual Global Forecast … If countries are slow to approve fiscal stimulus, or the distribution of it, it could present an additional drag on growth. Quarterly Geopolitical Risk Forecast: Q1 2021. %PDF-1.6 %���� None of us can see the future with 100% clarity, but some come quite close—like my friend George Friedman and his Geopolitical Futures team, who have just released their 20-page report, The World in 2021. NASDAQ Forecast: For 2021 and Beyond. Get an annual subscription to Worldview and receive a special discount for being a podcast listener. Expect no surprises here, as RBA head Philip Lowe has previously stated that rates would remain at historic lows until at least 2024 owing to sluggish wage growth. This report is less a series of predictions as it is a list of potential geopolitical issues that we believe will dominate the international landscape for 2021. But it does mean a potentially less bellicose approach (at least publically), and instead one with more dialogue at the sub-executive level (there are indications that members of the new US cabinet may function as backdoor diplomats with China). Estimated Average Forecasted Micron Price: 91.08 Negative intraday dynamics of the instrument is expected with 1.910% volatility is expected. A threat to even the slenderest … The world never fails to surprise, so we undertake this challenge with humility, but also with … This is particularly true since China is largely a bipartisan issue in the US, with concerns ranging from security, to intellectual property, business, trade, investments, and labour standards. The risk to this though is if there is a bursting of asset prices in the developed world, for the reasons noted above. 2021 is likely to witness an acceleration of ongoing geopolitical shifts, while some emerging markets may experience significant growth tailwinds. 2020 will likely bear witness to Washington’s continued retreat from multilateralism on a gradual but steady glide path toward moderate isolationism. … Governments will be slow to act so start to see their concern rise post-2021 and look for signals in investment, R&D, and consumer preference changes through 2020. As is our custom, in mid-December, we publish our geopolitical outlook for the upcoming year. Share. Second, shutdown related headwinds place even more pressure on policy support, which gives rise to policy misstep related risks. While the report only focuses on these two scenario possibilities, the full scenario catalogue contains many more scenarios of varying probability and impact. But while the US shifts from a hard line, to soft line, and back to a medium line approach with China, there will of course be other nations that choose to court Chinese engagement and proximity to Beijing. This panel of FT experts discussed their predictions for the world in 2021. I expect there to be a boom from 2021 to 2025 in agritech, and with that disruption to the very nature of how it works globally. Global GDP growth in 2021 is projected at 4-5%, with China contributing roughly one-third of that growth. 2. (This is the last report of 2020; the next report will be published on January 11, 2021.) An initial soft approach towards China in the US (which gives way to an eventual harder line), coupled with more willingness in Europe to work with China on select issues, could then mean that sections of Asia including Vietnam, India, Taiwan, Australia, and to a lesser extent Philippines and Japan, question the world’s commitment to “containing” Beijing, given that China is a preeminent geopolitical and security concern for these nations. How will the outcome of the US presidential election shake up the geopolitical landscape? Past is precedent in Israeli election, Secretary-General Guterres warns on the financial stability of the developing world, and troubling signs of a civil war in Myanmar. This does not imply an outright reversal of the past administration’s policies with respect to China, as prior policies affecting tariffs and restrictions on investments and China’s tech sector are likely to stay. 2021 Predictions: What Experts See in the Year Ahead. Markets A look at the most recent business trends and how they are affecting global markets. One of the key forces driving geopolitics in 2021 will likely stem from a change in US leadership as this could yield significant shifts on the foreign policy front. One of the key forces driving geopolitics in 2021 will likely stem from a change in US leadership as this could yield significant shifts on the foreign policy front. The latter group of nations could see their refinancing costs increase, and further expose them to sovereign headwinds. Predictions 2021, The Year of the Hockey Stick. This in turn could embolden Turkey and Saudi Arabia to further bolster their own military capacity as they seek to be the power centres of the region. These trends, coupled with a weaker dollar, could result in increased capital flow to emerging markets as investors seek yield, thereby strengthening emerging market currencies and assets. The Geopolitics of the Arctic - Camden Conference 2021 Virtual Events Team - GEOPoliticalMatters.com European News & Media Centre Málaga The Camden Conference has taken the current global pandemic seriously and announces that the 2021 Conference will take place, although with a change in format for this year. What lies ahead for EU-UK relations and the Brexit negotiations? 08-01-2021. Despite the Brexit may be all the rage now, but all eyes will be … In this edition of the Forecast, the PGI Geopolitical Analysis team have identified major changes in international relat… Read More. Fawcett is right but only to a point, especially in the context of a forecast about 2021: Law enforcement agencies have picked up consistent signals of a far-right threat to state capitals and federal buildings. This pivot away from traditional alliances and norms will continue to challenge and reshape the existing global order. What this framework represents, in short, is a regionalisation of power structures as countries build their own capabilities, recognising that the world’s “approach” towards China is not binary. Feel free to reach out to me at atul.maheshwaridaya@gmail.com#2021 #predcition #astro #nifty #bank nifty #stockmarket #geopolitics #personallofe Geopolitical Futures-March 11, 2021 Tackling the rare earths issue. The future and forecast of all healthcare segments and geographic markets in 2021, including telehealth, clinical trials, point-of-care testing, enterprise imaging, and artificial intelligence 3. Then there are countries that might not be allies or partners of China, but will continue to seek areas of cooperation, including the European Union, Turkey, Russia, and some nations in Africa. In this edition of the Forecast, the PGI Geopolitical Analysis team have identified major changes in international relations in several regions, along with political violence and civil unrest related to election activity and COVID-19. As we all look towards the year ahead and try and put the global recession of 2020 behind us, I wanted to outline The Hartford’s perspective for the year ahead. Inevitably, this would affect emerging markets too. P7����b�y9��k��n�8�4T��������'C>A�v�V&m�[O5[�g��hZ�¼��I���1��C-#�U�,�[�4#�W��nc`1�ex` �7� Read Declan's Note Global Outlook Macro perspectives and 2021 predictions on markets, geopolitics, business trends and social issues from our senior team members. There is not time to go into all the numbers here, but generally the rate of death per 100,000 in many emerging markets is significantly lower than the developed world. Introductory Offer: Subscribe & Save on your first year! Infographics that illustrate our assessments in a clear, digestible snapshot. Shifting US foreign policies on everything from trade to aid have created uncertainty among our allies, and has contributed to a deceleration in global growth and … Estimated Average Forecasted Alibaba Price: 232.24 Positive intraday dynamics of the instrument is expected with 4.077% volatility is expected. China has played a delicate balancing act in the Middle East for years. Amongst these, India and Australia are best positioned to present a credible military deterrence (given their existing capabilities), whereas Japan could continue down the path of revising its constitutional commitment to pacifism as the nation strives to build robust military offensive capabilities down the road. Pessimistic forecast: 226.78 Optimistic: 236.42 Alibaba stock forecast for 08.04.2021. Until an effective vaccine is discovered, disruptions caused by COVID-19 will continue into 2021. 09-12-2020 . In other words, while we are positive on emerging markets, fundamentals matter, and some will potentially perform better than the rest. The Quad Comes of Age? Overview. 2. As such, here are our predictions for the ten leading geopolitical risks facing the world in the year 2021: ... As such, it is clear that there will be much to watch in terms of geopolitical risk in 2021. Increasing indebtedness is a growing issue, which could continue into 2021, and we expect investors to recognise it as such, thereby investing mainly in the stronger emerging markets that exhibit strong fundamentals. Ekaterina Zolotova - March 17, 2021. Transcendent social media In 1993 I joined the ‘Internet Club’ in my first year at university where I started a... 3. We already know that the Fed will be on hold and keep rates at 0 percent for the next two or three years, per their comments in September. Crisis24 and WorldAware Release 2021 Global Forecast and Risk Maps Posted By PR Channel Team - Gibraltar www.GEOPoliticalMatters.com. h�b```�0V��B ��ea�8�`�ǥ����X�������n��?�X��P2�����'�)�00�Wttt0��w�(�r8n Accordingly, it is possible that the economic recovery remains choppy with a few fits and starts, which could take us all the way through 2021. As such, here are our predictions for the ten leading geopolitical risks facing the world in the year 2021: The US-Chinese Cold War: Relations between the world’s two superpowers have fallen to their lowest level in decades. Even so, that didn’t stop people from trying their hand at reading the crystal ball. The NASDAQ is not immune markets as was evident by the impact of the Black Thursday panic collapse of 2020. It will be divided and flooded for the most part. 2021 Geopolitical Risk: The year ahead. Meanwhile, we are already seeing indications and hearing about the potential for inflation to pick up amongst these nations. 12 Predictions for Global Geopolitics for 2019 through 2025—and Beyond Across the globe, governments and institutions face increasing threats to their legitimacy and authority. Further examples of this regionalisation could be seen in the MENA region. The 2021 Vision Book is the ultimate guide for business professionals. The nation will also have many misfortunes at sea, and it will lose its colonies in the east. Many believe that the US will not want a confrontational or contentious relationship with Beijing at the start of a new administration. The COVID-19 pandemic dominated the focus of international relations in 2020 and effectively changed the course of domestic and international politics for all critical power centers around the world. Our predictions also show that many pandemic-driven changes look set to stay even after the virus is under control. In 2021, supply chain will take centre stage on the business agenda. In fact, our team has a set of models that create scores for countries on a host of perils, and our macroeconomic scores for select emerging markets are showing the largest numerical improvements when using 2021 economic forecasts. Political experts anticipate the US refocusing on traditional alliances, reposition troops in South Korea and Germany, and reaffirming its commitment to NATO. 37 0 obj <> endobj %%EOF Get in Touch. However, smaller markets that have their economies concentrated in one or two sectors, and are highly indebted, may risk having investors pass them over. Top Risks 2021 When the world's most powerful country is as divided as the United States is now, the G-Zero geopolitical recession is sure to deepen. This is what I would like to focus on in my 2021 outlook (I am not attempting to make predictions). The Perch Perspectives 2021 Forecast is divided into three distinct parts: macro trends, countries, and elections. Key Dates. Making predictions is a tricky business at the best of times, but especially so after a year of upheaval. However, over time expect any “softer” US approach towards China to give way to a more aggressive posture.